My current guess about the state of AI is that perception/inference is mostly nailed down, and a big remaining challenge is reasoning.
In this post, I’ll take a higher level view by reviewing an old Hinton paper: Mapping Part-Whole Hierarchies into Connectionist Networks.
Given a parallel network, some inferences can be performed very efficiently by simply allowing the network to settle down into a stable state. The states or external inputs of a subset of the units are fixed to represent the premises, and when the network has settled down, the conclusion is represented by the states of some other subset of the units. A large amount of knowledge about the domain can influence the settling process, provided the knowledge is in the form of connection strengths. This method of performing inference by a single settling of a network will be called “intuitive inference.” More complex inferences require a more serial approach in which parts of the network are used for performing several different intuitive inferences in sequence. This will be called “rational inference.”
The “settling down” process is akin to a forward pass in a neural network (NN). It is also called “inference” or “recognition”. We are sure that the “intuitive inference” step doesn’t involve lots of computation because of the “one hundred-step rule”. It goes as follows (quoting from On Intelligence):
A typical neuron can do this and reset itself in about five milliseconds (5 ms), or around two hundred times per second. […] It is called the “one hundred–step rule.” A human can perform significant tasks in much less time than a second. For example, I could show you a photograph and ask you to determine if there is cat in the image. Your job would be to push a button if there is a cat, but not if you see a bear or a warthog or a turnip. This task is difficult or impossible for a computer to perform today, yet a human can do it reliably in half a second or less. But neurons are slow, so in that half a second, the information entering your brain can only traverse a chain one hundred neurons long. That is, the brain “computes” solutions to problems like this in one hundred steps or fewer, regardless of how many total neurons might be involved. From the time light enters your eye to the time you press the button, a chain no longer than one hundred neurons could be involved.
“intuitive inference” is this “computation” involving less than a hundred neurons. “rational inference” is something else, and I have no idea what it is. Back to the Hinton article:
The distinction between these two kinds of inference is not simply a serial versus parallel distinction. A network that is settling to a single stable state typically requires a series of iterations. Also, it may exhibit another emergent type of seriality during a single settling because easily drawn conclusions may emerge early in the settling. So even within one settling a network can exhibit something that looks like sequential inference. This interesting phenomenon makes it clear that the crucial criterion for distinguishing rational from intuitive inference is not seriality. The defining characteristic of rational inference is that the way in which entities in the domain are mapped into the hardware changes during the course of the inference.
The distinction between these two types of inference applies quite well to a conventional computer. Intuitive inferences correspond, roughly, to single machine instructions and rational inferences correspond to sequences of machine instructions that typically involve changes in the way in which parts of the task are mapped into the CPU. Moreover, the very same inference can sometimes be performed in different ways. The task of multiplying two integers, for example, can be performed in a single instruction by dedicated hardware, or it can be performed by a sequential program. In the first case the inference is very fast but is limited in flexibility. It may work well for 32 bit numbers but not for 33 bit numbers. […] One big difference between computers and people is in the amount of computation that can be done in an intuitive inference. A computer typically breaks up a computation into very many, very small machine instructions that are executed in sequence. For the computations that people can do well, they typically use a few sequential steps each of which involves a computationally intensive intuitive inference. So we can think of people as “huge instruction set computers.” […]
A further difference between people and computers is that a computer does not change its instruction set as it runs, whereas people seem to be capable of taking frequently repeated sequences and eliminating the sequential steps so that an inference that was once rational becomes intuitive.
This is similar to this idea of pushing representations down the cortical hierarchy (in HTM theory). Another side node: this is what happens when you use the wrong instruction set.